Monday 16 September 2013

Most important fx news this week



New week in Forex has started. We have very important data scheduled almost each day this week. I expect these to cause very strong moves in various currency pairs. So, what is ahead of us?

Tuesday

Australia: Policy meeting minutes from September (coming at 01:30 GMT). I expect aussie to fall and I am getting ready to buy eur/aud and gbp/aud pairs as well as selling aud/chf.

Great Britain: Consumer Price Index (coming at 08:30 GMT). This could boost British Pound and cause it to rise, especially against commodity currencies. 

United States: Consumer Price Index (coming at 12:30 GMT). This could be a prelude to Fed meeting later this week. I bet the greenback will recover. 

Wednesday

United States: Federal Market Committee rate decision (coming at 18:00 GMT). Not only currencies, but also stocks with their indexes and commodities (and all the rest) will react to the statement. 

Bernanke’s meeting in Washington (coming at 18:30 GMT). This can probably be more important than decision itself as mister Bernanke will present his future outlook on economy. 

New Zealand: Gross Domestic Product (coming at 22:45 GMT). Isn’t it time for the kiwi dollar to fall back to its’ downtrend?

Thursday

Switzerland: Swiss National Bank rate decision (coming at 07:30 GMT). I expect Swiss Franc to rise.

Friday will not have any significant releases, so market participants will probably rely on the data that is released between now and Thursday evening, the biggest event being Wednesday evening (FED rate decision). 

Let’s wait for tomorrow and see what happens to British Pound. 

Thursday 22 August 2013

Canadian dollar downtrend any time



It’s time for me to continue updating the blog on important Forex releases. This week hasn’t been very rich in fundamental events and we haven’t seen much action yet. Yesterday’s FED minutes failed to create volatility and market participants will probably trade with the bias that they have rather than information that they got from fundamental news. I am looking at various Canadian dollar pairs now and I see that ‘the loonie’ has a huge potential to fall long term. Weekly charts clearly show that there is a big probability of breakouts in various CAD pairs and this is not good news for the currency.

We have CPI from Canada this Friday and it could be a real catalyst for sharp move of prices. It is always very difficult to say when will the break occur, but in my opinion the phrase ‘sooner rather than later’ fits very well in this case. British Pound Canadian dollar pair was able to break about 200 sma on a weekly chart. After being for a very long time in a downtrend the pair went above the average this June, then broke down, but for the last three weeks it regained the lost ground and is above it again. The pair is playing with 1.6400 level which is the breakout point and I intend go long if the pair goes above it next time. The same can be said about other CAD pairs. Be aware of that. There might be some rest and consolidation happening right now, but as I said, I think the time of the breakout is near. Let us wait for tomorrow.

Wednesday 14 August 2013

Ultimate guide to successful day trading



People will always strive to find new and fast ways to make money. In most instances they will just create another get quick rich scheme; in some cases they might discover some legitimate and real ways to increase one’s financial well being. Day trading could be placed in both categories, depending on who tries to promote it and then use it to make capital. In most cases day traders lose all of their money, but there definitely are some pros who consistently take cash from the market using reliable trading systems, good trading plan, very strict discipline and sound risk management.

What is day trading?
 
It is active trading when a trader closes his position the same day he opens. These are usually considered to be speculators. 

Let us now look at key points are necessary for you to be successful in day trading. 

Trading with an edge would probably be number one thing for anyone who wants to be a successful day trader. You must have a strategy that will be profitable long term. If you are able to back test it going back ten years or even more, do it. If you have all necessary rules for your system, but it fails to make money in the long run you will fail. It does not matter whether other components for trading are ok. You will still lose. Have an edge. Find out what works best in day to day trading and put it into a system that you will be able to use each day. 

Understand market states. Different financial markets can be in different market states at the same time. Euro maybe going up, gold down, S&P500 sideways and some group of stocks could be plummeting or soaring. What is good and works under one market state will cease to work under another. Range trading rules will not work in a trend environment. Day trading style under different market states may also change. When market is in ranges various fundamental news plays a very significant role in market direction and you can actually make nice cash trading news. However, when a trend starts market often ignores the news (good or bad) and trades with a bias in the direction of a prevailing tendency. Negative news can actually be a good opportunity to add on dips when market stops falling (correcting itself) and go back up (if the trend is upwards).

Know when to play small and when to play big. This idea comes from professional card players (card counters) in the card game of Blackjack. They know that a casino initially has advantage over them. So, they play small by placing very small bets. At some point, when the players notice that the number of remaining high value cards is very big and most of low value cards are gone they know that the advantage shifted from the house side to the players side. That’s when they start playing big by placing ten, twenty or even one hundred times bigger bets than they make when the house has advantage over them. That’s how they win in the long run. Although this example taking from gambling it is pretty sound and can be applied to trading too. You have to know when the market has very high odds of going up or down and knowing that you should trade accordingly. Play bigger than and do not involve yourself too much with the market that has no clear direction. 

Wait for trades to come to you and do not force them. A lot of new day traders make a big mistake of trying to force trades. They feel bored while waiting for a signal and start relying on their gut feelings to trade. This is when they commit the sin of overtrading which definitely leads to a significant capital loss. You have to choose whether you are going to be a discretionary trader (relies on his own judgment to pick trades) or you are going to follow a strict trading system. You must not mix the two because your results will also be mixed. Discretionary trading requires very deep understanding of fundamentals as well as a lot of practice and tremendous patience. A legendary investor Jim Rogers could be classified as a discretionary trader. However, he also admits that he is often too early in his decision to enter the market, because he does not rely on technical analysis at all. Well, this is a small detour about discretionary trading, but it illustrates my point about forcing a trade. Wait till market is ready to go up or down (if that’s what is your system based on) and when your system gives you ‘green light’ jump and swim with the flow. 

In order to win you have to learn from those who have made money.  Read books written by successful traders, learn their strengths, trading strategies and other qualities that are necessary to succeed. See what mistakes they have made as traders and how they were able to correct them. Study how they managed difficult situations that arose in their trading careers, how they handled big losses as well as windfalls. I learned a lot by reading series of books on the most successful traders (Market Wizards series) by Jack Schwager. These guys may not share their systems, but they do share their trading mentality and mentality is precisely what makes one a winner or a loser. If there are flaws in the way you think about markets it will be reflected in your trading results. If your thinking is right you will be a profitable day trader. Be an eternal student of financial markets. 

Have a trading journal. Record your trades in a journal. Note what you did today and what was right as well as wrong. Did you stick to your system, or you deviated from it? Were you early to open a trade or late? Did you have to take the trade in the first place? Did you follow your rules or you broke them? Write down some ideas on how (if) you could have made the trade(s) better. Do not forget also the trades that you have missed. Missed opportunities might be even worse than bad trades taken. It means you did not follow your system and a few missed good trades can make a huge difference when you look at your account balance at the end of the week or the month and finally the year. This kind of journal will help you to prepare better for next day and with time you will learn how to avoid most common mistakes that you make that eventually cost you a lot of money (either in a sense of bad trades or missed opportunities). 

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Learn to deal with your emotions. If you cannot manage your emotions how are you going to manage your money and place good trades? Trading style that is based on following your emotions is doomed to fail one hundred percent. Do not even think about it. It is statistics. Although trading can sometimes be referred to as a form of art it should not be associated with following your inspirations, revelations, hunches and similar kind of things that elevate or push down your emotions to extreme levels. You have to keep these under strict control and do not be allowed to be carried away by them. Your logical mind, strict rules for following your system and patience are the keys. Being led by your emotions in trading will lead you to gambling and force you to adopt gambler’s mentality. Trading is neither gambling nor a lottery where ‘God knows how’ you will succeed. No, you will succeed by very clear principles that have already been mentioned, not by some unknown and unpredictable factors. If you do not agree to that you’d better try playing in Casino, not financial markets. Who knows, maybe you will be successful. 

Enjoy your profits as you increase your account. If you have a good month you should take some profits in order to enjoy the fruits of your labor. Let the other part stay, so that you could increase your account and the volume of your trades with time. Good traders always take around half of the profit if they have a windfall. It reinforces their success. You will need to ‘touch’ your reward in order to keep a winner’s mentality. Jesse Livermore taught this to his children. He was one of the most successful technical traders of the twentieth century and most of today’s successful trend traders follow his laid out principles in the book “Reminiscences of a stock operator”. A lot of traders manage to make some money at some point, but very few of them cash their profits and they eventually lose it because they  are solely motivated by greed, which is the most effective way to lose your  money in financial markets. 


Averaging losses is the biggest pitfall in day trading.  Cut them short. You will be able to make money next time. Close your loss while it is small. The first loss is the best loss. If you do not agree with that this is a major problem mental drawback to your trading. The only way you can make money trading is by having bigger profits and smaller losses. Any successful day trader can confirm that. Follow this rule and you will survive in the markets. Neglect it at your peril and peril will come indeed. Newbie traders falsely believe that by opening extra trades they reduce the percentage of their losses. One day they will find out that their account a margin call and they do not have any more funds to trade. Never try to catch falling knives. You will hurt your account, your trading psychology will experience a serious damage and it will be pretty difficult to recover after this kind of failure. Be smart!

Having a trading plan is your map for trading. If you have a plan you know where you are going, if you don’t you will stumble sooner rather than later. No constructor starts building a house without a plan. He does not rely on his creativity and spontaneity. He does not create a plan on the spot. He has it before any construction work starts. This works even in acting. Actors have a script, which could be an equivalent of a plan. They might improvise a lot, but they will still stick to the script a lot. Do not expect that you can survive without a trading plan. Spontaneity is your enemy in trading, not a friend. It may and will change your plan if you rely on it. So, be strong and stick to your plan at all cost. 

Learn to concentrate. Concentration and focus is the key to success. Learn specifics or a few or maybe even one security and anticipate a change in fluctuations which can give you opportunities to make profits. They more you analyze a specific security the more you get a feel of it and expectation how it may behave in the nearest future. Learn technical levels of the security, they ways and manner it moves, its’ daily, weekly and monthly ranges, volatility and etc. Leaning about character of a specific security enables you to develop an edge. In some cases you will even be able to define a significant top or bottom as concentration and focus sharpen your speculative skills beyond your imagination. 

Have an open mind. This may sound a little contradictory to a point about having a trading plan, but it really isn’t. Having an open mind does not mean you stop following your plan. It helps you to see possible weak spots in your trading strategy as well as your trading assumptions. When you spot that try to change it accordingly. Open mind helps you to see what state market is in and when strategy stops working and you have to use another one. I talked about it when I discussed market states. 

So, these are the key things that will help you to become a successful day trader. Before you start trading with real money you should, however, try ‘paper trading’ or trading on a demo account. Most brokers will give you this opportunity for a month (some as long as you want). You can back test your strategies; see how well your money management techniques work and what you need to improve. Good luck in day trading. 



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It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by the website are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of the website, the "Information") are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Examples presented on the website are for educational purposes only. Such set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment. 
 
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.