Grossl Domestic Product of GB

We had some nice volatility yesterday when Australia’s CPI was released. Australian dollar took a hit and the weakness will probably continue till the end of the week. Canadian Retail Sales numbers were a surprise as they were much bigger than predicted and ‘the loonie’ soared as a result. We are coming to the key event of the week: UK Gross Domestic Product. Neither you, nor me know where the Pound will go and whether the real data matches the expectations of the market. Economists have given us pretty bullish figure to expect, which is not very likely to be met. But who knows, maybe it will be better than expected too.

So, I am getting ready for a trade of British GDP, which is coming in half an hour. I am preparing a buy stop in gbp/cad and a sell stop in gbp/nzd. If market is not taken by surprise I will remove my orders and wait for other currency pairs or commodities to move. S&P500 seems to have corrected nicely and may take another try to take its’ all time highs of 1700. Oil is also stabilizing after a fall and sitting on 200 simple moving average on 2 hour chart. I bet the end of the week will be pretty interesting.

US dollar bearish after FED

Market participant expected to see more bullish FED minutes today, but Federal Reserve committee published slightly more dovish report that most traders expected. As a result US dollar fell, together with major stock indexes. On the other hand, the minutes are quite positive about the path US economy is taking with a slight concern about employment situation. If that improves the stimulation process would end sooner rather than later. Most speculators expected more hawkish statement though. 

Anyway, there is one more risk event lying ahead of us today and that is Ben Bernanke’s press conference coming in less than one hour. This can turn things around and US dollar may rebound or continue falling even faster than after minutes. Oil as you may see is rising. It has broken key resistance levels and is probably headed to all time high at 150 dollar per barrel. Gold seems to have formed double top on hourly charts. This is not a very serious indicator since it is on hourly charts, but I still see it as a possible sign of a reversal and going down to 1180 low that was reached at the end of June. I am also bearish towards S&P500 and other stock indexes.