Forex news this week

I haven’t written a post for a few days. It is time to write one. Unfortunately, there isn’t much what to say from the fundamental point of view. This week isn’t very rich in important Forex news. However, there is some and let us look at it right now. 

Tuesday

Canada: Retail Sales (coming at 15:30 GMT). I do not expect strong moves. Maybe gbp/cad could be taken higher, but nothing else. 

Wednesday

Australia: Consumer Price Index (coming at 01:30 GMT). Isn’t it time for Australian dollar to strengthen? Let us wait and see. 

New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (coming at 21:00 GMT). 

Thursday

United Kingdom: Gross Domestic Product (coming at 08:30). This could be a key point in deciding on the nearest direction of Pound pairs. Pound may peak against most pairs. 

USA: Durable Goods Orders (coming at 12:30 GMT). 

Japan: National Consumer Price Index (coming at 23:30 GMT). 

Friday is pretty clean this time as no important news is scheduled on the day. So, we may expect major moves by the end of the week (probably in the middle of it). I will concentrate on British Pound this week. There is slight possibility for strengthening of commodity currencies: Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Which falls Euro or Pound?

As two very important events are scheduled for today one may wonder which currency will fall and which one will rise. United Kingdom has to release Forex news first. Bank of England will deliver their decision about interest rates and Bank chief should also deliver some speech about central bank’s financial policy. I am bullish towards Pound and bearish towards Euro at the moment. However, I will concentrate more on gbp/chf and gbp/nzd pairs. These look most attractive at the moment. Pound Franc pair has to clear 1.4500 level to confirm bullish bias. I buy above that price area. 

Euro, on the other had looks kind of bearish. I am looking at eur/nzd now and the technical structure of it is very bearish. So, it looks weak against commodities and today’s event might change the course for Euro against commodities, but nobody knows what will happen to eur/usd, eur/jpy and eur/gbp pairs. Euro US dollar pair seems to be sitting on support as well as gbp/usd pair. So, it alludes to the idea that the greenback might fall. I also do not rule the chance of Euro forming double bottom patterns in commodity currencies on hourly charts. Whatever happens, be sure to be on the same side as the market. 

See you tomorrow with more updates.

GB news fails to lift Pound

British Pound started going down a few hours before very important Bank of England Stability Report was released. It stabilized minutes before the release and now after the release all Pound pairs seem to be consolidating. Pound is generally weak, especially against New Zealand, Australian dollar and US dollar. The only currency that it seems to be strong against is Swiss Franc. 

I currently have longs in gbp/chf pair and planning to keep it till 1.4800 level. I expect the area to be reached by the end of the week. The pair seems to have formed double bottom pattern and is now trying to break 1.4500 resistance level. If news from Germany tomorrow and Friday is more negative than positive this resistance will not hold and the above mentioned take profit target will be reached as I have planned. 

I have no real ideas why commodity currencies are rallying, but it could be connected with some stability coming back from China. In my opinion, this counter trend move in Aussie and Kiwi pairs will be short lived and we will have good opportunities to sell rallies and go in the direction of the main downward trend. 

You can see how individual currencies doing here: http://seekingalpha.com/data/currencies

British Pound to strengthen against Swiss Franc

I am looking at gbp/chf pair and see bullish price action in it. 1.4500 level has to be broken with confidence so that bullish trend would be confirmed. We have very important data coming this week from Great Britain that might influence price action in Pound pairs. Looking at eur/gbp pair you might see the same thing that you can see in gbp/chf pair too.

Consumer Price index from Great Britain on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT will probably move the above mentioned pairs one way or another. I hope British Pound will strengthen. On Wednesday we will have another risk event that can impact Pound pairs and that will be Bank of England minutes. It is to be released at 8:30 GMT too.

I will write on other very important news events tomorrow.