Canadian dollar downtrend any time

It’s time for me to continue updating the blog on important Forex releases. This week hasn’t been very rich in fundamental events and we haven’t seen much action yet. Yesterday’s FED minutes failed to create volatility and market participants will probably trade with the bias that they have rather than information that they got from fundamental news. I am looking at various Canadian dollar pairs now and I see that ‘the loonie’ has a huge potential to fall long term. Weekly charts clearly show that there is a big probability of breakouts in various CAD pairs and this is not good news for the currency.

We have CPI from Canada this Friday and it could be a real catalyst for sharp move of prices. It is always very difficult to say when will the break occur, but in my opinion the phrase ‘sooner rather than later’ fits very well in this case. British Pound Canadian dollar pair was able to break about 200 sma on a weekly chart. After being for a very long time in a downtrend the pair went above the average this June, then broke down, but for the last three weeks it regained the lost ground and is above it again. The pair is playing with 1.6400 level which is the breakout point and I intend go long if the pair goes above it next time. The same can be said about other CAD pairs. Be aware of that. There might be some rest and consolidation happening right now, but as I said, I think the time of the breakout is near. Let us wait for tomorrow.

I also suggest you reading my previous post: http://forex-news-trading.blogspot.com/2013/08/ultimate-guide-to-successful-day-trading.html

Forex news this week

I haven’t written a post for a few days. It is time to write one. Unfortunately, there isn’t much what to say from the fundamental point of view. This week isn’t very rich in important Forex news. However, there is some and let us look at it right now. 

Tuesday

Canada: Retail Sales (coming at 15:30 GMT). I do not expect strong moves. Maybe gbp/cad could be taken higher, but nothing else. 

Wednesday

Australia: Consumer Price Index (coming at 01:30 GMT). Isn’t it time for Australian dollar to strengthen? Let us wait and see. 

New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (coming at 21:00 GMT). 

Thursday

United Kingdom: Gross Domestic Product (coming at 08:30). This could be a key point in deciding on the nearest direction of Pound pairs. Pound may peak against most pairs. 

USA: Durable Goods Orders (coming at 12:30 GMT). 

Japan: National Consumer Price Index (coming at 23:30 GMT). 

Friday is pretty clean this time as no important news is scheduled on the day. So, we may expect major moves by the end of the week (probably in the middle of it). I will concentrate on British Pound this week. There is slight possibility for strengthening of commodity currencies: Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Canada CPI mark bottom in CAD?

Canada CPI is coming in few minutes. What do we expect? A lot of Canadian dollar pairs are showing possible bottoms. If you take gbp/cad or eur/cad as an example we can see clear resistance levels that both Euro and Pound were not able to break in a few years time. However, I do not rule the chance that this will change. I hope you see what happens in commodities. Gold has lost ground below ‘its’ feet and most other commodities are falling too. 

The same can be said about commodity currencies. Australian dollar as well as New Zealand dollar have been terribly falling recently. So, it is very probable that ‘loonie’ will fall too. Do not forget that it is highly correlated to oil and look what is happening to oil.

News from Canada can cause loonie to collapse

Hi, folks. We are having quite a lot of important releases this week. Today is very significant, because Bank of Canada will announce its' interest rate decision. As you may see most of Canadian dollar pairs have been in pretty ugly ranges. Some tried to make new highs: such as usd/cad and gbp/cad, but failed. I guess today will be the day  when the loonie will collapse. Of course, this is just my speculation, but do not forget that interest rate decisions are the most important fundamental events in Forex market. So, be sure to watch what happens at 14.00 GMT today.

I am also expecting Euro to go down against US dollar and finally breach 1.2800 level and then go to last year low of around 1.2000. It may take some time. Friday may be key for Euro as we have Euro zone consumer price index coming out. That should send eur/usd and eur/gbp to their lows. I am already short eur/gbp and if Friday sees a breakout lower I will add to my position in the pair and likewise in Euro dollar short. Ok, enough for today. Hope to update my blog soon.