Purchasing Manager Index pushes Pound up

There has been some Forex data of intermediate importance during European session and the one that particularly influenced moves in fx market was GBP Purchasing Manager Index. It made British Pound run up across the board. The data came out better than expected and this gives extra bullishness for the cable before key event on Thursday when the Bank of England releases its' interest rate decision. This strength may continue in eur/gbp and gbp/jpy. I currently am in both of the pairs. gbp/usd will probably hit resistance at 1.5300 level and only Thursday will determine where the pair will go.

Important macroeconomic events this week

Hi. This week will see some important key events that can have significant impact on financial markets, especially Forex this week.

Monday:
USD  ISM Manufacturing (at 14:00 GMT).

Tuesday:
AUD  Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (at 04:30 GMT). It may reverse short term bearish commodity currency downtrend.

Wednesday:
AUD Gross Domestic Product (at 01:30 GMT).
Euro zone Gross Domestic Product (at 09:00 GMT)

Thursday:
GBP Bank of England rate decision (at 11:00 GMT)
EUR European Central Bank rate decision (at 11:45 GMT)

Friday:
USD Change in Non-Farm payrolls (at 12:30 GMT)

Get ready for the week and see you tomorrow with some ideas on news trading.

Euro up and Loonie down

Euro had mixed reactions on a little bit better than expected CPI data from Europe. What will happen to European currency next week is hard to tell. However, looking at eur/usd price action you might guess that 1.3150 level is probably in the cards. At least, that's what I am getting ready for Monday and Tuesday. It is not quite clear whether eur/gbp will follow the price action. Time will show. I will concentrate on eur/usd for now.

Now, loonie went down against most currencies. The data was better than expected. Unfortunately, or should I say fortunately Canadian dollar went down. usd/cad and eur/cad are trying to make new highs and found it difficult to do for some time now. Next week could be the breaking point. I will post key events for the coming week tomorrow. One thing is clear, it will be key for commodity currencies. See you tomorrow.

Will Euro rise or fall on CPI

So, the last day of the week and the last day  of the month has come. Interesting mixture! What do I expect for today. Now, you must know that I like going with the flow and wherever market takes me. If the news pushes Euro up, I go up. If it pushes Euro down, I will go down. Be prepared to trade in both directions by using limit orders. 9:00 GMT is approaching very fast. Two hours left.

I was inclined to think that Euro will fall by the end of the week, but looking at price action it is not likely. Both eur/usd and even eur/gbp look pretty strong now. So, let us follow the rule of following market first. And let us leave our opinions for the next time.

And do not forget that news from Canada will also have serious impact on the market. That is due at 12:30 GMT.

Data from Europe and Canada tomorrow

Tomorrow is pretty important day. We may see fundamental things rock the Forex market at large. The first one is Euro zone consumer price index (cpi). It comes at 9:00 GMT. Be aware of that as Euro pairs will probably have significant impact from the event. The second one is Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). It comes out at 12:30 GMT. As you may understand all Canadian dollar pairs will be moved by the news. So, if you enjoy trading fundamental events be ready with your charts and specific currencies around the times I mentioned above. Good luck!

News from Canada can cause loonie to collapse

Hi, folks. We are having quite a lot of important releases this week. Today is very significant, because Bank of Canada will announce its' interest rate decision. As you may see most of Canadian dollar pairs have been in pretty ugly ranges. Some tried to make new highs: such as usd/cad and gbp/cad, but failed. I guess today will be the day  when the loonie will collapse. Of course, this is just my speculation, but do not forget that interest rate decisions are the most important fundamental events in Forex market. So, be sure to watch what happens at 14.00 GMT today.

I am also expecting Euro to go down against US dollar and finally breach 1.2800 level and then go to last year low of around 1.2000. It may take some time. Friday may be key for Euro as we have Euro zone consumer price index coming out. That should send eur/usd and eur/gbp to their lows. I am already short eur/gbp and if Friday sees a breakout lower I will add to my position in the pair and likewise in Euro dollar short. Ok, enough for today. Hope to update my blog soon.

FED fails to push dollar lower

FED interest rate decision failed to push US dollar lower and Euro rally stalled. Japanese Yen also failed to drop further and may start rising bit by bit. Tomorrow we have Non Farm Payrolls data, which will be key event of the week. It may hint as to whether Euro rally will continue or not. It can also provide new optimism for Yen bears. If that fails we may see significant correction in prices as Yen will strengthen, particularly against British pound. gbp/jpy may collapse to 134.00 level in the coming weeks and eur/jpy to 113.00. 

Eur/usd will also down. At least short term correction to 134.00 level should take place. So, let us wait to see further development in price action after NFP.

Fx news of high importance this week

Let us look at some of the most important Forex news that might influence financial markets this week.

Nothing serious on Monday. Usual stuff!

Tuesday:  

Bank of Japan rate decision

Wednesday:

Consumer Price Index (Australia) at: 00:30 GMT

Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report at: 5:00 GMT

Bank of England Minutes at: 9:30 GMT

Jobless Claims (Great Britain) at: 9:30 GMT

Bank of Canada rate decision at: 15:00 GMT

Thursday:

National Consumer Price Index (Japan) at: 23:30 GMT

Friday:

Gross Domestic Product (Great Britain) at: 9:30 GMT

Consumer Price Index (Canada) at 13:30 GMT

These are the main events that can influence move in currencies this week. Be careful trading those as volatility increases sharply during news times.

Bullish fundamental facts from Europe

ECB expressed its’ ‘sincere’ desire to address the European crisis and is again willing to do anything it takes to stabilize the region’ economy. These comments after interest rates announcements are very important as they usually give momentum for currencies at least for a few weeks. These are periods of time when a trader can accumulate a big position in a currency that is about to strengthen and keep it for a few weeks to make nice profits. That is exactly what happened in eur/usd or eur/jpy pairs. These macroeconomic news put Euro back on its’ uptrend and this tendency of Euro strength may continue for a few weeks.

I will repeat myself again that one should only trade in the direction of the main trend and never against it. So, after ECB and BOE announcements of interest rates have been made one can expect Yen and US dollar to weaken and Euro, Pound and commodity currencies to strengthen. Just be sure not to risk too much, nor to overtrade. These things never increase your profits. Vice versa, it impedes you to take the best possible trades that are on the table. Stay patient and try adding to your position on dips.

Nonfarm payrolls price action disappoints

Nonfarm payrolls data failed to create significant price action moves in most currency pairs. In fact, Friday was very calm in Forex market. Only scalpers could have benefited from the event. Other than that it was a pretty boring day. It is quite unusual for Fridays that often have huge market swings in most currency pairs and sharp reversals after weekly moves. 

However, it does not mean the piece of news will not have impact at all. Reactions often come after a day or in the beginning of a new week. The data that came out was slightly below market expectations, but it was still quite good. So, we have yet to see how big market dogs decide to push various currency pairs on Monday. 

I keep to my position that Euro will collapse soon and I think the move down has already started. Important support level has been broken. We do need some announcement from ECB or FED for the fall to accelerate and I guess it should come this month. It could be done during the announcement when interest rates are announced. I think it will be ECB head who will make a bearish stance against Euro.

Let us wait and see what happens this week. See you soon.