Most important fx news this week

New week in Forex has started. We have very important data scheduled almost each day this week. I expect these to cause very strong moves in various currency pairs. So, what is ahead of us?

Tuesday

Australia: Policy meeting minutes from September (coming at 01:30 GMT). I expect aussie to fall and I am getting ready to buy eur/aud and gbp/aud pairs as well as selling aud/chf.

Great Britain: Consumer Price Index (coming at 08:30 GMT). This could boost British Pound and cause it to rise, especially against commodity currencies. 

United States: Consumer Price Index (coming at 12:30 GMT). This could be a prelude to Fed meeting later this week. I bet the greenback will recover. 

Wednesday

United States: Federal Market Committee rate decision (coming at 18:00 GMT). Not only currencies, but also stocks with their indexes and commodities (and all the rest) will react to the statement. 

Bernanke’s meeting in Washington (coming at 18:30 GMT). This can probably be more important than decision itself as mister Bernanke will present his future outlook on economy. 

New Zealand: Gross Domestic Product (coming at 22:45 GMT). Isn’t it time for the kiwi dollar to fall back to its’ downtrend?

Thursday

Switzerland: Swiss National Bank rate decision (coming at 07:30 GMT). I expect Swiss Franc to rise.

Friday will not have any significant releases, so market participants will probably rely on the data that is released between now and Thursday evening, the biggest event being Wednesday evening (FED rate decision). 

Let’s wait for tomorrow and see what happens to British Pound. 

See also: http://forex-news-trading.blogspot.com/2013/08/ultimate-guide-to-successful-day-trading.html

Canadian dollar holds ahead of CPI

No major news remains for the remaining of the week. Yes, Ben Bernanke is going to present his semiannual financial policy to the Senate today, but he did this in front of the House yesterday, so I do not expect anything drastic to happen. Traders might send the greenback lower just to make extra profits for the end of the week and let gbp/usd reach 1.5300 and eur/usd 1.3300 levels, but that is not for sure. The nearest resistance for eur/usd is 1.3130 and for gbp/usd 1.5250. Intermediate trend for European currencies remains upwards and for US dollar downwards. 

One event that is of interest for currency traders should be Canadian Consumer Price Index coming tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. You never know which direction will ‘the loonie’ go, but there is a clear technical bearish bias for the currency. Although fundamental expectations are bullish and traders might position for such news tomorrow you should always remember the axiom ‘buy the rumor and sell the fact’. In my opinion current expectations of economists are too optimistic and Canadian dollar might fall if those expectations are not fulfilled. In the meantime (today and till the release) Canadian dollar will probably rise moderately. Get ready for this risk event.

Key Forex releases this week

Hi, although this week does not seem to be as rich in Forex releases as last week was we still have some very important macroeconomic events on our hands coming. Let me give you them. 

Monday

Europe – Euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels at 13:00 GMT. Mr. Draghi is scheduled to speak in Brussels at the same time. This can seriously impact most Euro pairs. And IMF will issue Euro Area article statement. Watch what happens to Euro currency at the time.

Tuesday

China – Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index coming at 01:30 GMT.

Great Britain – NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate coming at 14:00 GMT. Major Pound breaks are expected (Pound to go down). 

Wednesday

Europe – German Consumer Price Index coming at 06:00 GMT.

US – FED releases minutes from previous FOMC meeting at 18:00 GMT. This could be the most important event of the week. It will affect all major pairs and their crosses.

US – Ben Bernanke speaks on Economic Policy in Boston at 20:10 GMT. That is probably the second most important event of the week. I doubt if we hear anything new, but who knows.

Thursday

Australia – Australia unemployment change and rate coming at 01:30 GMT. Will it save aussie from falling? Maybe!

Japan – Kuroda holds Post meeting press conference at 06:30 GMT.

Europe – ECB publishes monthly report at 08:00 GMT.

Friday

US – Michigan Confidence coming at 13:55 GMT.

Ok, these events are very important and markets will be closely monitoring them. And so should you. See you tomorrow with more updates on how Forex news impacted currency pairs today.