Canadian dollar holds ahead of CPI

No major news remains for the remaining of the week. Yes, Ben Bernanke is going to present his semiannual financial policy to the Senate today, but he did this in front of the House yesterday, so I do not expect anything drastic to happen. Traders might send the greenback lower just to make extra profits for the end of the week and let gbp/usd reach 1.5300 and eur/usd 1.3300 levels, but that is not for sure. The nearest resistance for eur/usd is 1.3130 and for gbp/usd 1.5250. Intermediate trend for European currencies remains upwards and for US dollar downwards. 

One event that is of interest for currency traders should be Canadian Consumer Price Index coming tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. You never know which direction will ‘the loonie’ go, but there is a clear technical bearish bias for the currency. Although fundamental expectations are bullish and traders might position for such news tomorrow you should always remember the axiom ‘buy the rumor and sell the fact’. In my opinion current expectations of economists are too optimistic and Canadian dollar might fall if those expectations are not fulfilled. In the meantime (today and till the release) Canadian dollar will probably rise moderately. Get ready for this risk event.

Canada CPI mark bottom in CAD?

Canada CPI is coming in few minutes. What do we expect? A lot of Canadian dollar pairs are showing possible bottoms. If you take gbp/cad or eur/cad as an example we can see clear resistance levels that both Euro and Pound were not able to break in a few years time. However, I do not rule the chance that this will change. I hope you see what happens in commodities. Gold has lost ground below ‘its’ feet and most other commodities are falling too. 

The same can be said about commodity currencies. Australian dollar as well as New Zealand dollar have been terribly falling recently. So, it is very probable that ‘loonie’ will fall too. Do not forget that it is highly correlated to oil and look what is happening to oil.

Federal Market Committee outcome: dollar rises

Forex news from Federal Market Committee did have significant impact yesterday. Dollar regained almost half that it lost in a matter of a few trading sessions. FED gave a very clear signal that it will end this stimulation program quite soon. No wonder stocks fell, gold and silver collapsed and dollar rose. Technically it was all clear: Pound and Euro had already made to their resistance. 

One thing is not sure and that is what would be to the downtrend in Japanese Yen. It looks like it is not over yet. Various Yen pairs are taking out their resistance level, which means that Japanese Yen will continue falling. If the momentum does not stop here we are going to see new lows in eur/usd, gbp/usd and new highs in usd/jpy pairs. 

Tomorrow Canada CPI is released. That should set the tone for Canadian dollar pairs for the upcoming week.