Most important fx news this week

New week in Forex has started. We have very important data scheduled almost each day this week. I expect these to cause very strong moves in various currency pairs. So, what is ahead of us?

Tuesday

Australia: Policy meeting minutes from September (coming at 01:30 GMT). I expect aussie to fall and I am getting ready to buy eur/aud and gbp/aud pairs as well as selling aud/chf.

Great Britain: Consumer Price Index (coming at 08:30 GMT). This could boost British Pound and cause it to rise, especially against commodity currencies. 

United States: Consumer Price Index (coming at 12:30 GMT). This could be a prelude to Fed meeting later this week. I bet the greenback will recover. 

Wednesday

United States: Federal Market Committee rate decision (coming at 18:00 GMT). Not only currencies, but also stocks with their indexes and commodities (and all the rest) will react to the statement. 

Bernanke’s meeting in Washington (coming at 18:30 GMT). This can probably be more important than decision itself as mister Bernanke will present his future outlook on economy. 

New Zealand: Gross Domestic Product (coming at 22:45 GMT). Isn’t it time for the kiwi dollar to fall back to its’ downtrend?

Thursday

Switzerland: Swiss National Bank rate decision (coming at 07:30 GMT). I expect Swiss Franc to rise.

Friday will not have any significant releases, so market participants will probably rely on the data that is released between now and Thursday evening, the biggest event being Wednesday evening (FED rate decision). 

Let’s wait for tomorrow and see what happens to British Pound. 

See also: http://forex-news-trading.blogspot.com/2013/08/ultimate-guide-to-successful-day-trading.html

Yen and Dollar to strengthen next week?

The longer term picture for Japanese Yen and US dollar are quite bullish. You hopefully noticed that the most recent strength in US dollar index was basically due to the fact that Yen was weak. You could actually see dollar weakening in most pairs and strengthening on the Yen and dollar index strengthening at the same time. This has been changing lately. You can see how dollar weakened this weak across most currency pairs, not necessarily Yen, and dollar index collapsed. Anyway, we have very rich week upcoming. Major economies will announce their interest rates decision: US, Europe and UK. I do hope to see some ‘fireworks’. 

On the one hand aud/usd and nzd/usd displaying clear technical bullish patterns. On the other US dollar index is close to its’ support. What does that mean? Being a technician I am ready to go either way. Commodity currencies look bullish against most other currency pairs too: Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc. I am thinking about going long in aud/usd and shorting gbp/aud, gbp/nzd as well as eur/nzd and eur/aud. It looks like major time for correction in these pairs has come. And the timing for that seems to strike next week. Get ready and do your own analysis over the weekend.

News can push European currencies lower

A few releases from Europe are scheduled today. From technical point of view all European currencies look extremely vulnerable, particularly against commodity currencies: NZD, AUD and CAD. Swiss Franc has already broken key supports in these pairs and is rapidly going down. Other crosses, such as eur/nzd and gbp/nzd as well as eur/aud and gbp/aud are threatening to break down any time now. What could trigger their fall?

IMF global economic outlook may trigger a sell-off in Euro and NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate may break the British Pound. Pound has already been hit by poor economic data today and is likely to continue going down. This is confirmed by both fundamental and technical factors. Euro is in a slightly better position, but the situation may change any time now. One of the greatest events that could turn everything around is tomorrow’s FED minutes from last month coming at 18:00 GMT, followed by FED’s Ben Bernanke speech at 20:10 GMT. 

Pound pairs should be sold on rallies. US dollar still remains the strongest currency for the time being and should be bought on dips. The fate of commodity currencies will be decided upon on Wednesday night when data from Australia is released. See you then.