Thursday, 18 July 2013

Canadian dollar holds ahead of CPI



No major news remains for the remaining of the week. Yes, Ben Bernanke is going to present his semiannual financial policy to the Senate today, but he did this in front of the House yesterday, so I do not expect anything drastic to happen. Traders might send the greenback lower just to make extra profits for the end of the week and let gbp/usd reach 1.5300 and eur/usd 1.3300 levels, but that is not for sure. The nearest resistance for eur/usd is 1.3130 and for gbp/usd 1.5250. Intermediate trend for European currencies remains upwards and for US dollar downwards. 

One event that is of interest for currency traders should be Canadian Consumer Price Index coming tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. You never know which direction will ‘the loonie’ go, but there is a clear technical bearish bias for the currency. Although fundamental expectations are bullish and traders might position for such news tomorrow you should always remember the axiom ‘buy the rumor and sell the fact’. In my opinion current expectations of economists are too optimistic and Canadian dollar might fall if those expectations are not fulfilled. In the meantime (today and till the release) Canadian dollar will probably rise moderately. Get ready for this risk event.

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